Select your cards and calculate winning probabilities with Monte Carlo simulation
This calculator uses Monte Carlo simulation to estimate your winning probability in any Texas Hold'em scenario. Follow these four steps to get results in seconds.
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Poker equity is the percentage of the pot you expect to win on average given the current cards. If you have 60% equity in a $100 pot, your expected value is $60. Equity calculations are foundational to every profitable poker decision, from preflop all-in calls to river value bets. Understanding your equity against an opponent's hand or range allows you to make mathematically sound decisions rather than relying on intuition alone.
Exact equity calculation requires enumerating every possible combination of remaining cards. For a preflop all-in between two known hands with no board cards, there are 1,712,304 possible five-card boards. Adding more opponents or unknown hands increases the combinations exponentially. Monte Carlo simulation sidesteps this computational burden by taking a large random sample instead of exhaustive enumeration.
In each simulation trial, the engine randomly deals all unknown cards (opponent hole cards, remaining community cards) from the unused portion of the deck, evaluates every player's best five-card hand from their seven available cards, and records the winner. After thousands of trials, the observed win/tie/lose frequencies converge to the true probabilities. With 20,000 simulations, the margin of error is typically under 1 percentage point, which is more than sufficient for practical poker decisions.
The engine evaluates each five-card combination by classifying it into one of the standard poker hand rankings: high card, one pair, two pair, three of a kind, straight, flush, full house, four of a kind, or straight flush. Each hand receives a numerical score that allows direct comparison. From seven cards (two hole cards plus five community cards), the evaluator tests all 21 possible five-card subsets and returns the highest-scoring combination. This ensures that the best possible hand is always identified, even in ambiguous situations where multiple hand types are possible.
Knowing common preflop equity matchups helps calibrate your intuition. Pocket aces (AA) have roughly 85% equity against a random hand and about 80% against another pocket pair. A pair versus two overcards (for example, JJ vs AK) is approximately a 55-45 coin flip. Dominated hands like AK vs AQ have about 70-30 equity. Suited connectors like 7h8h perform better against big pairs than you might expect, typically holding 20-23% equity thanks to straight and flush potential. These benchmarks are useful shortcuts, but this calculator gives you precise numbers for any specific matchup.
Equity alone does not determine whether a call is profitable. You must compare your equity to the pot odds you are being offered. If the pot is $100 and your opponent bets $50, you need to call $50 to win $150 (the pot plus the bet), so you need at least 33% equity to break even. If your calculated equity exceeds the required threshold, the call is profitable in the long run. This fundamental relationship between equity and pot odds is the mathematical backbone of winning poker strategy.
Poker equity is the share of the pot you expect to win based on the current situation. It is expressed as a percentage. If you are all-in with 65% equity, you will win the pot 65% of the time and lose 35% of the time over many repetitions. Equity accounts for all possible future cards that could be dealt. It is the single most important number for evaluating whether a bet, call, or fold is mathematically correct. Unlike pot odds, which depend on bet sizing, equity depends only on the cards in play.
Monte Carlo simulation accuracy depends on the number of trials. With 20,000 simulations (the default in this tool), results are typically accurate to within 0.5 to 1.0 percentage points of the exact answer. For practical poker decisions, this precision is more than sufficient. Increasing the sample size to 100,000 would reduce the error to roughly 0.3 percentage points, but at the cost of significantly longer computation time. The 20,000 trial default provides the best balance of speed (under one second) and accuracy for real-time use.
This tool runs 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations per calculation. In each simulation, all unknown cards are randomly dealt from the remaining deck, every player's best five-card hand is evaluated, and the result (win, tie, or lose) is recorded for your hand. The final percentages are the observed frequencies across all 20,000 trials. This number was chosen to keep calculation time under one second on most devices while maintaining accuracy within approximately one percentage point of the mathematically exact result.
No, this calculator is designed specifically for standard Texas Hold'em with a full 52-card deck. Short Deck (Six Plus) poker removes all cards below 6, uses a 36-card deck, and has different hand rankings (for example, a flush beats a full house). Using this tool for Short Deck would produce incorrect results because the deck composition and hand ranking rules are fundamentally different. For Short Deck strategy, see our Short Deck Poker Rules and Strategy Guide.
This tool is intended for study and analysis, not for use during active hands at a real money table. Most poker rooms and online platforms prohibit the use of real-time assistance tools (RTAs) during play, and using one can result in account suspension or ejection from a live game. The best way to use this calculator is away from the table: study common preflop matchups, analyze hands you played previously, and build intuition for equity in typical situations. Over time, you will internalize the key numbers and make better decisions without needing to consult a tool.
There are two practical methods. For quick in-game math, count your outs (the cards that improve your hand) and multiply by 4 on the flop or by 2 on the turn to estimate your percentage chance of hitting by the river — the "4-2 rule". For exact numbers against a specific hand or board, you need to evaluate every possible runout, which is what this calculator does with a Monte Carlo simulation. Enter your cards above and it returns precise win, tie, and lose percentages instantly.
Poker odds (or equity) describe how often your hand will win against your opponent's — a property of the cards. Pot odds describe the price you are being offered to call — a property of the bet sizing. You combine the two: if your equity is higher than the equity the pot odds require you to have, the call is profitable. For example, calling $50 into a $150 pot needs 25% equity, so any hand with more than 25% equity is a profitable call.
A flush draw (nine outs) hits by the river roughly 35% of the time from the flop, or about 19% on the turn alone. An open-ended straight draw (eight outs) hits about 32% from the flop and 17% on the turn. A gutshot straight draw (four outs) is around 17% from the flop and 9% on the turn. You can verify any of these instantly by entering your hole cards and the flop above and reading the win percentage.
The equities below were computed by running 500,000 simulated all-ins for each matchup with this tool's own engine (accurate to about 0.1%). The percentage is the favorite hand's chance to win the pot. Use them to calibrate your intuition, then plug your own hands into the calculator above for any specific spot.
| Matchup | Favorite equity | Type |
|---|---|---|
| AA vs KK | 83% | Pair vs pair A higher pair is about an 80/20 favorite over a lower pair — the gap barely matters. |
| KK vs QQ | 83% | |
| AA vs 77 | 81% | |
| QQ vs AKs | 54% | Pair vs two overcards (the race) The classic coin flip: a pair is a slight favorite (~54/46) over two higher cards. |
| QQ vs AKo | 57% | |
| 88 vs AKs | 53% | |
| AA vs 76s | 78% | Pair vs two undercards A pair over two lower cards is a big favorite; suited connectors close the gap a little. |
| AA vs 72o | 88% | |
| AK vs AQ | 74% | Dominated hands (shared card) Sharing a card with a worse kicker is crushing — roughly a 70/30 dog. |
| AK vs KQ | 70% | |
| AQ vs AJ | 73% | |
| AK vs QJo | 65% | Two overcards vs two undercards No pair, no domination: the two higher cards are about a 60/40 favorite. |
| AK vs QJs | 62% | |
| AKs vs QQ | 46% | Suited matters Being suited adds roughly 2-3 points of equity to the same hand. |
| AKo vs QQ | 43% |
"Outs" are the cards that improve your hand to a likely winner. Count them, then read your chance of hitting below. These figures are exact (from card combinatorics, not simulation). The popular "rule of 4 and 2" — multiply outs by 4 on the flop, by 2 on the turn — is a close shortcut you can do in your head.
| Outs | Typical draw | Hit by turn | Hit by river (1 card) | Flop → river (2 cards) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Flush + open-ended straight draw | 31.9% | 32.6% | 54.1% |
| 12 | Flush draw + gutshot | 25.5% | 26.1% | 45.0% |
| 9 | Flush draw | 19.1% | 19.6% | 35.0% |
| 8 | Open-ended straight draw | 17.0% | 17.4% | 31.5% |
| 6 | Two overcards | 12.8% | 13.0% | 24.1% |
| 4 | Gutshot / two pair to full house | 8.5% | 8.7% | 16.5% |
| 3 | One overcard | 6.4% | 6.5% | 12.5% |
| 2 | Pocket pair to a set | 4.3% | 4.3% | 8.4% |